Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy.

The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Caroline County with comparisons to Virginia and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Caroline County vs. Virginia's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Figure 1 traces Caroline County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Caroline County's population rose from 13,904 in 1969 to 31,957 in 2022, for a net gain of 18,053, or 129.84%.

NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities.

Figure 2 traces Virginia's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Virginia's population rose from 4,614,000 in 1969 to 8,683,619 in 2022, for a net gain of 4,069,619, or 88.20%.

NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities.

Figure 3 portrays Caroline County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Virginia, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.

Caroline County's overall population growth was 129.84% over 1969-2022 outpaced Virginia's increase of 88.20%, and outpaced the United States' increase of 65.57%.

Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the population growth of Caroline County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Virginia's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Virginia's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly.

In 1969, Caroline County's population comprised 0.30% of Virginia's population, while in 2022 it equated to 0.37% thereby yielding a +0.07% share-shift.

Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Caroline County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.

On average, Caroline County's population grew at an annual rate of 1.59% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 2005 (6.50%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1980 (-2.60%). In 2022, Caroline County's population grew by 1.77%

Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again shows the annual percent change in Caroline County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022.

During the 1970s, Caroline County's annual population growth rate averaged 2.84%. It averaged 0.29% throughout the 1980s, 1.55% in the 1990s, 2.53% throughout the 2000s, 0.86% during the 2010s, 1.24% thus far this decade (2020-2022).

Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Caroline County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Virginia and the nation. As the chart reveals, Caroline County's average annual population growth outpaced Virginia's average during the 1970s (2.84% vs. 1.44%), amounted to less than Virginia's average in the 1980s (0.29% vs. 1.40%), outpaced Virginia's average in the 1990s (1.55% vs. 1.35%), led Virginia's average throughout the 2000s (2.53% vs. 1.25%), registered above Virginia's average during the 2010s (0.86% vs. 0.82%), and surpassed Virginia's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (1.24% vs. 0.33%).

Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Caroline County topped the nation during the 1970s (2.84% vs. 1.10%), trailed the nation throughout the 1980s (0.29% vs. 0.95%), led the nation throughout the 1990s (1.55% vs. 1.23%), registered above the nation over the 2000s (2.53% vs. 0.95%), led the nation in the 2010s (0.86% vs. 0.74%), and registered above the nation over 2020-2022 (1.24% vs. 0.31%).