Surry County vs. Virginia Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Surry County: 2022 Population = 6,527 2022 Percent of State = 0.08% Virginia: 2022 Population = 8,683,619 2022 Percent of U.S. = 2.61% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Surry County with comparisons to Virginia and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Surry County vs. Virginia's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Surry County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Surry County's population rose from 5,902 in 1969 to 6,527 in 2022, for a net gain of 625, or 10.59%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Virginia's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Virginia's population rose from 4,614,000 in 1969 to 8,683,619 in 2022, for a net gain of 4,069,619, or 88.20%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Surry County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Virginia, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Surry County's overall population growth was 10.59% over 1969-2022 trailed Virginia's increase of 88.20%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Virginia Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the population growth of Surry County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Virginia's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Virginia's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Surry County's population comprised 0.13% of Virginia's population, while in 2022 it equated to 0.08% thereby yielding a -0.05% share-shift.
Surry County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Surry County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Surry County's population grew at an annual rate of 0.22% over 1970-2022. The county recorded its highest growth in 1975 (8.71%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1973 (-11.27%). In 2022, Surry County's population grew by 0.05% Surry County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in Surry County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Surry County's annual population growth rate averaged 0.36%. It averaged 0.14% during the 1980s, 1.02% throughout the 1990s, 0.39% in the 2000s, -0.70% in the 2010s, -0.15% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Surry County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Virginia and the nation. As the chart reveals, Surry County's average annual population growth posted below Virginia's average during the 1970s (0.36% vs. 1.44%), recorded under Virginia's average in the 1980s (0.14% vs. 1.40%), trailed Virginia's average in the 1990s (1.02% vs. 1.35%), recorded under Virginia's average during the 2000s (0.39% vs. 1.25%), recorded under Virginia's average during the 2010s (-0.70% vs. 0.82%), and trailed Virginia's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.15% vs. 0.33%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Surry County fell under the nation during the 1970s (0.36% vs. 1.10%), lagged the nation in the 1980s (0.14% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation during the 1990s (1.02% vs. 1.23%), posted below the nation over the 2000s (0.39% vs. 0.95%), trailed the nation during the 2010s (-0.70% vs. 0.74%), and trailed the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.15% vs. 0.31%).
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