Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth
Across Virginia Counties
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2021 and 2021
Employment Growth by County
Virginia:
2010-2021 = 1.06%
2021 = 3.21%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all of Virginia's 82 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Virginia Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of Virginia's 82 counties over the year (2021) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2021). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2021 and 2021
Employment Growth by County
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2021 = 1.06%
2021 = 3.21%
This figure displays the 82 counties of Virginia as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2021), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2021).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 1.06%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 1.06% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (1.06%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 26 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2021, while 56 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 26 counties whose most recent (2021) employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.21%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 56 counties whose employment growth over 2021 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 82 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2021) and near-term (2021) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 1.06% over 2010-2021 and 3.21% over 2021:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are the nineteen counties whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (1.06%) and near-term (3.21%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are the seven counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.06%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Virginia average (3.21%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are the seven counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (1.06%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (3.21%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the forty-nine counties whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (1.06%) and near-term (3.21%).
   
 
Summary of Virginia's 82 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(3.21%)
Above
(3.21%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(1.06%)
7
19
26
Below
(1.06%)
49
7
56
 
56
26
82
 
   
Leading Counties
2021 vs. 2010-2021 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2021 = 1.06%
2021 = 3.21%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Virginia counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Virginia's average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2021 = 1.06%) as well as near-term (2021 = 3.21%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2021 as noted in the table below.
Of Virginia's 82 counties, 19 (23%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Slipping Counties
2021 vs. 2010-2021 Averages
Slipping Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2021 = 1.06%
2021 = 3.21%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 7 Virginia counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2021 = 1.06%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2021 = 3.21%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2021.
Only 7 ( 9%) of Virginia's 82 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Gaining Counties
2021 vs. 2010-2021 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2021 = 1.06%
2021 = 3.21%
This figure shows the distribution of the 7 Virginia counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2021 = 1.06%), while they outpaced Virginia's average near-term (2021 = 3.21%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2021.
Of Virginia's 82 counties, only 9% (7) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Lagging Counties
2021 vs. 2010-2021 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2021 = 1.06%
2021 = 3.21%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 49 Virginia counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2021 = 1.06%) as well as near-term (2021 = 3.21%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2021.
60% of Virginia's counties, 49 of 82, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
   
 
Virginia
Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2021
 
2021
 
 
Leading Counties
 
8
2.14
 
14
4.59
203,614
 
24
1.17
 
20
3.77
24,917
 
20
1.26
 
22
3.54
6,543
 
23
1.18
 
2
7.94
8,480
 
1
4.60
 
6
5.53
26,011
 
12
1.64
 
24
3.39
6,887
 
10
1.72
 
8
5.22
75,136
 
7
2.29
 
13
4.71
17,284
 
3
3.24
 
9
5.20
263,128
 
6
2.44
 
16
4.20
15,768
 
2
3.41
 
12
4.89
9,844
 
15
1.41
 
15
4.36
15,388
 
9
2.03
 
17
4.19
12,984
 
16
1.39
 
3
6.41
17,742
 
25
1.13
 
5
5.66
3,680
 
4
3.01
 
11
5.02
72,914
 
21
1.23
 
4
6.14
19,629
 
5
2.83
 
7
5.31
48,567
 
26
1.08
 
19
3.87
276,256
Slipping Counties
 
22
1.19
 
67
0.24
236,959
 
13
1.49
 
49
2.35
16,301
 
14
1.46
 
38
2.76
9,914
 
11
1.71
 
61
0.77
2,603
 
18
1.33
 
29
3.16
37,998
 
17
1.36
 
28
3.18
258,018
 
19
1.26
 
43
2.58
141,314
Gaining Counties
 
70
-0.57
 
23
3.50
2,658
 
59
-0.19
 
10
5.19
4,887
 
35
0.79
 
1
15.66
7,594
 
41
0.48
 
26
3.31
14,794
 
55
-0.10
 
25
3.39
8,666
 
50
0.05
 
18
3.92
15,758
 
49
0.10
 
21
3.70
6,048
Lagging Counties
 
40
0.49
 
71
-0.55
19,133
 
39
0.54
 
44
2.56
4,769
 
75
-0.82
 
30
3.13
11,790
 
34
0.81
 
35
2.86
5,572
 
37
0.72
 
27
3.19
31,952
 
66
-0.47
 
69
-0.04
2,727
 
81
-1.76
 
82
-1.73
5,109
 
82
-2.37
 
80
-1.61
7,190
 
47
0.14
 
81
-1.70
4,963
 
60
-0.24
 
51
2.08
6,927
 
36
0.73
 
52
2.04
1,502
 
31
0.98
 
47
2.37
2,465
 
77
-0.92
 
42
2.58
4,498
 
72
-0.75
 
55
1.91
5,125
 
29
1.02
 
34
2.92
23,719
 
28
1.02
 
75
-1.11
5,454
 
58
-0.16
 
36
2.79
16,026
 
71
-0.69
 
63
0.67
1,211
 
42
0.47
 
48
2.36
16,149
 
61
-0.25
 
79
-1.52
1,945
 
27
1.03
 
53
1.99
6,311
 
63
-0.32
 
60
0.79
6,905
 
80
-1.51
 
76
-1.16
6,791
 
54
-0.04
 
73
-0.84
3,886
 
33
0.84
 
45
2.45
5,989
 
68
-0.48
 
72
-0.81
2,951
 
69
-0.50
 
59
1.13
15,315
 
62
-0.27
 
50
2.24
5,297
 
45
0.30
 
33
3.07
6,576
 
73
-0.76
 
40
2.69
6,367
 
43
0.38
 
77
-1.31
4,588
 
57
-0.14
 
57
1.61
7,461
 
78
-1.11
 
70
-0.44
6,609
 
51
0.04
 
41
2.61
11,897
 
48
0.13
 
65
0.41
4,127
 
74
-0.77
 
78
-1.51
9,611
 
67
-0.47
 
68
0.07
7,676
 
46
0.27
 
64
0.49
20,485
 
44
0.37
 
62
0.75
3,071
 
64
-0.34
 
74
-0.93
4,604
 
79
-1.46
 
66
0.37
18,477
 
53
-0.04
 
31
3.11
15,260
 
65
-0.42
 
58
1.21
119,974
 
56
-0.10
 
56
1.87
76,419
 
32
0.94
 
46
2.39
133,601
 
76
-0.82
 
32
3.08
193,725
 
38
0.68
 
54
1.95
61,890
 
30
1.00
 
39
2.74
200,701
 
52
0.01
 
37
2.76
80,150
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.06
 
3.21
5,392,698
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.31
 
3.82
202,752,100
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2023. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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