Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth
Across Virginia Counties
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2019 and 2019
Employment Growth by County
Virginia:
2010-2019 = 1.29%
2019 = 1.81%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all of Virginia's 82 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Virginia Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of Virginia's 82 counties over the latest available year (2019) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2019). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2019 and 2019
Employment Growth by County
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2019 = 1.29%
2019 = 1.81%
This figure displays the 82 counties of Virginia as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2019), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2019).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 1.29%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 1.29% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (1.29%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 25 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2019, while 57 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 35 counties whose most recent (2019) employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.81%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 47 counties whose employment growth over 2019 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 82 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2019) and near-term (2019) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 1.29% over 2010-2019 and 1.81% over 2019:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are the twenty counties whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (1.29%) and near-term (1.81%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are the five counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.29%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Virginia average (1.81%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are the fifteen counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (1.29%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (1.81%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the forty-two counties whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (1.29%) and near-term (1.81%).
   
 
Summary of Virginia's 82 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(1.81%)
Above
(1.81%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(1.29%)
5
20
25
Below
(1.29%)
42
15
57
 
47
35
82
 
   
Leading Counties
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2019 = 1.29%
2019 = 1.81%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Virginia counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Virginia's average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2019 = 1.29%) as well as near-term (2019 = 1.81%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2019 as noted in the table below.
Of Virginia's 82 counties, 20 (24%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Slipping Counties
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Slipping Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2019 = 1.29%
2019 = 1.81%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 5 Virginia counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2019 = 1.29%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2019 = 1.81%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
Only 5 ( 6%) of Virginia's 82 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Gaining Counties
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2019 = 1.29%
2019 = 1.81%
This figure shows the distribution of the 15 Virginia counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2019 = 1.29%), while they outpaced Virginia's average near-term (2019 = 1.81%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
Of Virginia's 82 counties, 18% (15) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Lagging Counties
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2019 = 1.29%
2019 = 1.81%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 42 Virginia counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2019 = 1.29%) as well as near-term (2019 = 1.81%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
51% of Virginia's counties, 42 of 82, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
   
 
Virginia
Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2019
 
2019
 
 
Leading Counties
 
16
1.70
 
20
2.92
243,370
 
10
2.08
 
4
5.50
16,797
 
14
1.71
 
18
2.99
9,877
 
17
1.63
 
16
3.00
6,621
 
1
4.52
 
2
6.85
23,597
 
20
1.52
 
3
6.58
5,618
 
19
1.63
 
15
3.06
6,663
 
11
2.06
 
12
3.40
75,238
 
13
1.86
 
23
2.72
15,842
 
23
1.41
 
33
2.02
6,417
 
2
3.63
 
8
4.10
256,716
 
4
2.92
 
1
7.99
8,787
 
15
1.70
 
25
2.53
15,420
 
7
2.23
 
6
4.28
12,716
 
12
1.93
 
7
4.24
18,307
 
24
1.37
 
28
2.39
3,691
 
3
2.93
 
11
3.43
68,195
 
25
1.33
 
35
1.92
138,687
 
22
1.43
 
24
2.57
205,502
 
5
2.74
 
21
2.90
45,555
Slipping Counties
 
8
2.10
 
73
-0.23
2,620
 
9
2.09
 
62
0.40
194,354
 
21
1.52
 
49
1.01
37,752
 
18
1.63
 
42
1.51
257,989
 
6
2.57
 
46
1.18
15,220
Gaining Counties
 
43
0.51
 
32
2.15
4,699
 
57
0.15
 
19
2.93
7,232
 
41
0.58
 
26
2.53
1,461
 
26
1.21
 
34
1.94
24,458
 
78
-1.16
 
5
4.39
4,475
 
56
0.18
 
13
3.32
16,639
 
66
-0.09
 
17
3.00
7,108
 
31
1.05
 
27
2.50
6,017
 
51
0.23
 
10
3.46
3,198
 
32
0.95
 
31
2.17
6,984
 
73
-0.52
 
22
2.86
6,620
 
42
0.56
 
14
3.25
4,635
 
64
0.00
 
9
3.87
8,125
 
59
0.09
 
30
2.18
4,835
 
27
1.13
 
29
2.26
133,748
Lagging Counties
 
52
0.23
 
72
-0.19
18,495
 
77
-1.09
 
68
0.03
11,665
 
36
0.82
 
40
1.67
5,494
 
48
0.42
 
77
-0.66
3,003
 
38
0.73
 
54
0.94
31,538
 
67
-0.11
 
52
0.95
2,859
 
80
-1.45
 
39
1.67
5,466
 
82
-1.49
 
81
-1.69
8,280
 
37
0.75
 
36
1.76
5,259
 
69
-0.26
 
57
0.76
4,877
 
28
1.12
 
76
-0.61
2,459
 
75
-0.56
 
70
-0.02
5,302
 
34
0.88
 
37
1.75
8,063
 
30
1.08
 
59
0.52
23,406
 
72
-0.52
 
78
-0.73
6,632
 
49
0.37
 
51
0.95
14,501
 
71
-0.50
 
60
0.48
1,249
 
47
0.42
 
55
0.92
15,921
 
68
-0.25
 
74
-0.36
1,961
 
81
-1.48
 
66
0.20
7,017
 
46
0.45
 
75
-0.46
4,085
 
70
-0.44
 
61
0.44
15,563
 
65
-0.06
 
43
1.49
5,445
 
58
0.14
 
48
1.02
7,706
 
53
0.22
 
58
0.62
8,981
 
76
-0.62
 
80
-1.47
7,108
 
44
0.49
 
64
0.32
12,462
 
45
0.49
 
45
1.23
4,267
 
74
-0.54
 
50
0.98
9,994
 
39
0.71
 
56
0.78
21,302
 
55
0.19
 
53
0.95
15,981
 
40
0.62
 
82
-8.04
3,133
 
79
-1.39
 
79
-1.03
19,178
 
33
0.94
 
47
1.13
18,632
 
50
0.34
 
38
1.73
6,182
 
60
0.06
 
71
-0.14
15,429
 
62
0.02
 
63
0.35
126,617
 
63
0.01
 
65
0.26
77,539
 
61
0.05
 
69
0.00
215,930
 
35
0.83
 
44
1.42
61,964
 
54
0.19
 
67
0.16
81,719
 
29
1.11
 
41
1.66
271,442
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.29
 
1.81
5,407,314
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.62
 
1.76
203,809,500
November 2020
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2021. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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