Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Mining Earnings Growth
Across Virginia Counties
Real* Mining
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2020 and 2020
Real* Mining
Earnings Growth
Virginia:
2010-2020 = 5.66%
2020 = -12.27%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real mining earnings growth across all of Virginia's 82 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Virginia Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real mining earnings growth of Virginia's 82 counties over the latest available year (2020) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2020). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Mining
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2020 and 2020
Real* Mining
Earnings Growth
Virginia:
2010-2020 = 5.66%
2020 = -12.27%
This figure displays the 82 counties of Virginia as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real mining earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2020), and the horizontal axis representing the real mining earnings growth rate for the near-term (2020).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real mining earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 5.66%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 5.66% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real mining earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (5.66%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 7 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2020, while 9 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 14 counties whose most recent (2020) real mining earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-12.27%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 2 counties whose real mining earnings growth over 2020 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 82 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2020) and near-term (2020) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 5.66% over 2010-2020 and -12.27% over 2020:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real mining earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (5.66%) and near-term (-12.27%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real mining earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (5.66%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Virginia average (-12.27%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real mining earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (5.66%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (-12.27%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real mining earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (5.66%) and near-term (-12.27%).
   
 
Summary of Virginia's 82 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(-12.27%)
Above
(-12.27%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(5.66%)
1
6
7
Below
(5.66%)
1
8
9
 
2
14
16
 
   
Leading Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2020 = 5.66%
2020 = -12.27%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Virginia counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Virginia's average annual real mining earnings growth both long-term (2010-2020 = 5.66%) as well as near-term (2020 = -12.27%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real mining earnings growth rate over 2010-2020.
Of Virginia's 82 counties, just 6 (7%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Slipping Counties
Virginia:
2010-2020 = 5.66%
2020 = -12.27%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 1 Virginia county classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real mining earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2020 = 5.66%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2020 = -12.27%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real mining earnings growth rate over 2010-2020.
Only 1 (1%) of Virginia's 82 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2020 = 5.66%
2020 = -12.27%
This figure shows the distribution of the 8 Virginia counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real mining earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2020 = 5.66%), while they outpaced Virginia's average near-term (2020 = -12.27%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real mining earnings growth rate over 2010-2020.
Of Virginia's 82 counties, only 10% (8) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2020 = 5.66%
2020 = -12.27%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 1 Virginia county classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real mining earnings growth both long-term (2010-2020 = 5.66%) as well as near-term (2020 = -12.27%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real mining earnings growth rate over 2010-2020.
1% of Virginia's counties, 1 of 82, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Virginia
Real* Mining Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2020
 
2020
 
 
Leading Counties
 
7
6.42
 
7
4.09
6,311
 
3
11.60
 
23
-7.58
122
 
1
512.92
 
1
1,850.00
39
 
6
7.09
 
9
2.06
8,304
 
5
8.17
 
8
2.16
6,326
 
2
49.23
 
24
-7.64
447
Slipping Counties
 
4
8.88
 
38
-23.35
32,745
Gaining Counties
 
16
-176.39
 
6
5.61
207
 
15
-72.63
 
20
-7.29
89
 
9
-0.27
 
17
-0.07
73,324
 
12
-10.36
 
2
55.38
2,859
 
14
-68.07
 
11
0.00
0
 
8
1.92
 
4
20.15
26,009
 
11
-5.79
 
11
0.00
0
 
13
-12.79
 
35
-8.33
33
Lagging Counties
 
10
-1.49
 
39
-25.59
113,164
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
32
-8.11
68
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
41
-80.00
1
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
27
-7.69
12
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
22
-7.48
136
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
32
-8.11
68
 
U
U
 
11
0.00
0
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
26
-7.67
313
 
U
U
 
S
S
1,287
 
U
U
 
36
-8.89
41
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
5
7.98
8,602
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
19
-5.79
3,318
 
U
U
 
37
-9.09
10
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
32
-8.11
68
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
11
0.00
0
 
U
U
 
31
-7.81
177
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
11
0.00
0
 
U
U
 
21
-7.47
161
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
11
0.00
0
 
U
U
 
25
-7.66
229
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
27
-7.69
204
 
U
U
 
10
0.56
180
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
3
54.55
34
 
U
U
 
30
-7.80
130
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
40
-73.08
7
 
U
U
 
18
-3.91
31,047
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
29
-7.71
2,309
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5.66
 
-12.27
572,758
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5.92
 
-13.64
142,324,000
November 2021
REAP_PI_CA1600N_610200_LSGL
 
   
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