Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Transportation and Warehousing Employment Growth
Across Virginia Counties
Transportation and Warehousing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2019 and 2019
Transportation and Warehousing
Employment Growth
Virginia:
2010-2019 = 5.49%
2019 = 7.65%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of transportation and warehousing employment growth across all of Virginia's 82 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Virginia Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the transportation and warehousing employment growth of Virginia's 82 counties over the latest available year (2019) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2019). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Transportation and Warehousing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2019 and 2019
Transportation and Warehousing
Employment Growth
Virginia:
2010-2019 = 5.49%
2019 = 7.65%
This figure displays the 82 counties of Virginia as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2019), and the horizontal axis representing the transportation and warehousing employment growth rate for the near-term (2019).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term transportation and warehousing employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 5.49%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 5.49% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (5.49%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 5 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2019, while 27 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 9 counties whose most recent (2019) transportation and warehousing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (7.65%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 23 counties whose transportation and warehousing employment growth over 2019 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 82 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2019) and near-term (2019) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 5.49% over 2010-2019 and 7.65% over 2019:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (5.49%) and near-term (7.65%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (5.49%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Virginia average (7.65%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (5.49%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (7.65%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (5.49%) and near-term (7.65%).
   
 
Summary of Virginia's 82 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(7.65%)
Above
(7.65%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(5.49%)
2
3
5
Below
(5.49%)
21
6
27
 
23
9
32
 
   
Leading Counties
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2019 = 5.49%
2019 = 7.65%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Virginia counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Virginia's average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth both long-term (2010-2019 = 5.49%) as well as near-term (2019 = 7.65%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
Of Virginia's 82 counties, just 3 (4%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Slipping Counties
Virginia:
2010-2019 = 5.49%
2019 = 7.65%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 2 Virginia counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2019 = 5.49%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2019 = 7.65%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
Only 2 (2%) of Virginia's 82 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2019 = 5.49%
2019 = 7.65%
This figure shows the distribution of the 6 Virginia counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2019 = 5.49%), while they outpaced Virginia's average near-term (2019 = 7.65%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
Of Virginia's 82 counties, only 7% (6) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Virginia:
2010-2019 = 5.49%
2019 = 7.65%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 21 Virginia counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth both long-term (2010-2019 = 5.49%) as well as near-term (2019 = 7.65%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual transportation and warehousing employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
26% of Virginia's counties, 21 of 82, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Virginia
Transportation and Warehousing Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2019
 
2019
 
 
Leading Counties
 
1
12.04
 
1
50.14
3,740
 
5
6.68
 
6
14.81
8,894
 
3
9.03
 
7
12.96
1,194
Slipping Counties
 
2
9.99
 
52
-11.66
12,054
 
4
7.43
 
27
4.17
3,121
Gaining Counties
 
13
4.09
 
12
8.96
13,690
 
16
2.65
 
5
14.84
209
 
20
1.93
 
11
9.67
1,202
 
15
2.72
 
14
8.39
155
 
7
4.72
 
10
10.83
17,885
 
19
2.14
 
13
8.49
115
Lagging Counties
 
27
-0.96
 
46
-4.46
364
 
32
-3.61
 
31
3.50
266
 
24
0.28
 
42
-0.83
480
 
29
-2.41
 
45
-3.03
192
 
22
1.08
 
35
1.62
376
 
10
4.46
 
39
0.00
91
 
30
-3.35
 
39
0.00
155
 
6
5.02
 
22
5.88
108
 
11
4.41
 
21
6.28
237
 
28
-1.31
 
29
3.85
135
 
17
2.34
 
44
-2.76
141
 
31
-3.42
 
34
1.64
621
 
26
-0.54
 
51
-8.71
346
 
23
0.74
 
30
3.57
174
 
14
4.06
 
28
4.14
905
 
21
1.11
 
32
2.44
1,428
 
9
4.49
 
36
1.33
7,024
 
18
2.32
 
18
7.39
11,469
 
12
4.17
 
23
5.75
3,256
 
8
4.65
 
25
4.51
6,208
 
25
-0.14
 
43
-1.25
5,677
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
17
7.69
28
 
U
U
 
37
1.13
628
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
50
-8.33
253
 
U
U
 
8
11.11
20
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
637
 
U
U
 
15
8.24
92
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
9
11.05
382
 
U
U
 
2
23.51
352
 
U
U
 
4
15.85
95
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
3
16.49
855
 
U
U
 
48
-5.71
132
 
U
U
 
16
7.73
251
 
U
U
 
33
2.06
446
 
U
U
 
39
0.00
150
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
26
4.23
74
 
U
U
 
47
-4.84
59
 
U
U
 
24
5.60
132
 
U
U
 
S
S
120
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
19
6.88
202
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
38
1.01
3,195
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
20
6.39
7,631
 
U
U
 
49
-6.51
2,472
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5.49
 
7.65
222,982
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5.24
 
6.93
9,178,600
November 2020
REAP_PI_CA1500N_510800_LSGL
 
   
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